Possible War(s) in the Middle East (Part 1)
Please note that: “This article is based on author’s personal opinions”
A few months earlier, no one even was thinking about a possible war in the Middle East, and now, we hear the word WAR almost every day.
Iran proxies in the region got more active nowadays, Houthis in Yemen have entered a new phase of offensiveness. During the past weeks, they attacked Saudi Arabia pipelines near Riyadh via drones (which is high likely done through cells inside KSA), they launched missiles towards cities near Mecca and Jeddah, also their multiple attacks on Najran airport is worth to mention.
Meanwhile, Iranian proxies or IRGC themselves conducted marital attacks to 4 commercial vessels (including two Saudi oil vessels). And then we saw rocket/mortar attacks on the Baghdad’s Green Zone (Near US embassy).
Also, at the first days of May 2019, PIJ and Hamas started a big escalation with Israel (600+ rockets were launched towards Israel from Gaza).
As Iran and its proxies are getting more aggressive every day, US, Israel and Gulf countries started to worry more about further attacks. In case Iran tries to close the strait of Hormuz somehow (through naval mines, rocket/missile attacks or using suicide motorboats), There would be disastrous consequences, Oil price will get bullish and almost half of the world’s oil transportation will be stopped immediately.
Right after preliminary threats from Iran, US moved its Navies near the Persian Gulf. USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) and its CSG (including CVW7), USS Kearsarge (LHD-3), USS Bainbridge (DDG-96), USS Mason (DDG-87), USS Nitze (DDG-94), USS Leyte Gulf (CG-55) were deployed in Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Also, US sent a dozen F-35s and 4 B-52H Stratofortress to the Middle East and deployed them in the Al-Udeid AFB.
But, How could these deployments end? Are we really about to see a multi-front war?
Iran was arming its proxies during the past years and no one really felt the threat at the beginning. IRGC has sent tens of thousands of its troops (Quds Forces and Fatemiyoun) to Syria, deployed PMU, Hezbollah and Nujaba forces in Iraq, armed PIJ, DFLP and Hamas in Gaza, sent thousands of Hezbollah (and even PMU) forces to Al-Qunaitara to prepare for incoming escalation with Israel, Also IRGC in Afghanistan has Fatemiyoun forces.
But this doesn’t end there, IRGC has created multiple terror groups in central and northern Africa.
In case of an incoming war, Iran missile power is not the only threat, terrorist/suicide/drone attacks out of Iran are highly possible.
USAF, USN, RSAF, UAEAF could be involved in the war with Iran.
In my opinion, this is what’s going to happen in case of a war with Iran:
The Persian Gulf region
· I.R proxies from Mosul and other locations in Iraq will launch missiles towards Persian Gulf and Gulf countries (Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates)
· Houthis will use their Precision and SRBM missiles to target United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia viral positions and cities.
· Houthis will shoot missiles towards strait of Bab El-Mandab, this will block the strait of Hormuz’s alternative for vessels and naval traffic.
· Dozens of suicide bombings could happen in Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar.
· Hundreds of drone attacks to Saudi Pipelines.
· IRGC would launch ICBMs and SRBMs from South and Southwest of Iran towards US navies and Gulf countries as well.
· IRGC proxies will make Afghanistan more unstable, US bases in Afghanistan could get hit by rocket and suicide attacks.
· IRGC proxies will go for suicide bombing in Eastern Pakistan and even near the LoC to heat up the situation between Pakistan and India
· Riots in Iraq could be expected
· Suicide attacks in Baghdad, Mosul, Kirkuk, Samarra, Basra, Hillah, Erbil and more.
· Rocket attacks towards US and Iraqi government bases.
· Terror attacks could target Iraq oil transportation lines (lines and ground)
· IRGC proxies would launch missiles towards Jordan (possibly through Iraq)
Israel and Eastern Mediterranean
· PIJ and Hamas Rocket attacks are the most expected things for Israel, rockets could reach almost everywhere important in Israel.
· Hezbollah and IRGC members would launch missiles towards north and even south of Israel
· Hezbollah forces could go for a ground operation, we’re still not sure how many more tunnels are left after the IDF’s Operation Northern Shield.
· Stabbing and terror attacks in Westbank cities would make a hard situation for Shin Bet and IDF.
· IRGC Missiles/Rockets could reach and target vessels in Eastern Mediterranean
· Even Cyprus could be a target (Akrotiri and Dhekelia AFBs as well)
· I.R proxies could do many terrorist attacks in Europe. Mossad and other Intelligence agencies showed that to us before.
Ok, That’s it for this article.
In the next part of the article, I will review possible offensive strategies against Iran and its proxies in the Middle East.