What options does Juan Guaido have left?

It’s been 7 months since Guaido failed to take power in the events of April 30, and since then it has been relatively quiet. So what options does Juan Guaido have?

Since April it has been quiet in Venezuela, protests have almost completely stopped with only sporadic protests from some workers and in areas that experience regular electricity and water shortages. Not only have the protests stopped, but momentum towards removing Maduro has almost completely stopped.

After the events of April 30, Maduro agreed over the summer to hold negotiations with Guaido and the opposition, in the hopes of coming to a political solution in Venezuela. The talks were mediated by Norway but it was evident to some areas of the opposition, as well as those in the US that these negotiations and talks were just a way for Maduro to stall the opposition. This was confirmed in September when the latest round of talks in Barbados were cancelled along with all further negotiations after Maduro instructed his officials to abandon negotiations after 2 months of talks in Barbados. Since September Guaido has stated that he will not conduct any more negotiations with Maduro or his officials.

Whilst negotiations were ongoing, Guaido was working on gaining more international support, through Venezuela re-entry into TIAR (Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance). In theory this would allow Guaido to ask for an international military coalition to help oust Maduro from power, but this is a near impossible solution to the problem. The problem with TIAR is that none of the countries want to go to war over Venezuela and risk creating a refugee crisis larger than the one already happening.

Both Maduro and Guaido have tried to stall each other this summer, Maduro is trying to buy time and wait until the new National Assembly elections ion early 2020. Guaido has also been trying to buy time so he can work on new tactics to remove Maduro as sop far while his previous efforts have advanced his cause, they have failed to produce any positive action. Leopoldo Lopez being stuck in the Spanish embassy in Caracas since May will have given him time to organise the next step for the opposition as Lopez is the real organiser of the opposition, being behind both the plans for the aid delivery and attempted takeover in April.

What are the remaining options?

There are a few options left for the opposition;

Political Solution - The option supported by all international backers, of both Maduro and Guaido is a political solution where new Presidential elections are held using UN election monitors. This solution was originally favoured by Guaido and some members of the opposition and some of Maduros officials also seemed open to this way forward, but it is a solution not favoured by many in Venezuela, or US Special Envoy to Venezuela, Elliot Abrams. In an interview in August Abrams said that he didn’t favour this solution as if UN election monitors said the elections were unfair and there were irregularities, then we would still be in the same position as Maduro wouldn’t yield power and therefore we would be a year along the line in the same position.

Guaidos Political Solution - Guaido wants a political solution to the problem, but for his political solution he first wants the ‘Cessation of the usurpation’ which means that he wants Maduro to leave power before holding elections. This solution has more support amongst the opposition but for many this still isn’t what they want as they believe that Maduros officials will be able to run in the elections.

Military Solution - The most unlikely solution is for an international military coalition to remove Maduro. This is an extremely popular solution amongst the opposition that has gained more popularity since Venezuelas reintroduction into the TIAR. This is also extremely unrealistic, no South American country wants to turn Venezuela into a war zone. Not even the US is willing to send soldiers into Venezuela. Any military action in Venezuela would likely turn into a civil war, a situation that no one wants after watching the Syrian civil war unfold over the past 8 years.

Military takeover - A solution that still presents hope to many Venezuelans is one where the Venezuelan military switches allegiance to Guaido on a nationwide scale. In both February and April small groups of Venezuelan soldiers from the GNB to SEBIN switched allegiance to Guaido, but neither event was on a large enough scale to change the current situation. This solution is still possible due to the questionable allegiances of some top Maduro officials such as Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino and Head of the Supreme Court Mikel Moreno. Manuel Figuera, former head of SEBIN was one of the main officials involved in the events in April and has now taken refuge in the US, he was in Maduros inner circle and his testimony since fleeing Venezuela indicates that many officials would happily see Maduro removed from power.

While we wait and see if Guaido can achieve his plan of removing Maduro before next years elections, we will have to wait and see, although his upcoming protests organised for November 16 could give us a clue of how he will achieve his goal of cessation of the usurpation.